Saturday, March 20, 2010

Volume Tells The Story

Hi Folks,

This will be brief. I think volume tells the story here. The biggest volume day we have had in a while was Friday and it was a down day. Which confirms my thoughts that we are heading lower.

March 31st ends the era of the FED buying MBS's(mortgage backed securities). This is a significant event. It is also the end of quarter and I believe money managers will stop chasing the market and marking their positions. There will be a wait and see time to see if private money steps in to buy the MBS's. My contention is that they will not. With the carry trade still in place and the stigma that area of the credit market exudes, why would they step in?

Again as in my earlier posts, watch the financials for direction. I feel the VIX has temporarily bottomed and we will see the market pullback that is well deserved.

As for GOLD, I still believe we see minor strength before getting the opportunity for a solid short. I will keep you posted.

Thanks and Good Trading,

Tim Winters

Tuesday, March 16, 2010

Watch Gold

Hi Folks,

I am looking for GOLD to move higher here. That is why in my earlier post I said not to short GOLD but to exit your long. However I am not suggesting a new long position other than to day trade on the long side. We could see new short term highs(meaning above ($112) over the next 2 weeks. However, this should set up nicely for a short in GOLD after this move. I will post when I see this short GOLD set up. Again I do recommend using the double long or double short ETF's to maximize these moves.

Thanks and Good Trading,

Tim Winters

Thursday, March 11, 2010

Being Early On A Call Is Another Way Of Saying I Was Wrong

Hi Folks,

I was early on my call about being short term bearish on the market. That is trader speak for admitting you were wrong. With that being said, I am still beaish on the market. This market is sliding upwards on low volume. A sign that it is mostly short covering and speculating. The big money isn't buying. I am beginning to average in over the next several days on the short side. I will buying short ETFs. I will probably find a stock or two to also short(none as of yet).

I got out of my short positions in BAC and CREE with small profits. Hopefully you listened to me and got out of your long GOLD positions. I am still watching to wait for direction in GOLD.

I am trying to commit o writing at least once a week going forward and gradually daily.

Thanks and Good Trading,

Tim Winters

Wednesday, March 3, 2010

Covering Your LONG Gold

Hi Folks,

I am recommending that you exit your long GOLD positions before Friday's jobs report. Although the dollar has not sold off yet as I think it will, GOLD has performed enough for my liking. I use DZZ(double short GOLD) and DGP(double long GOLD) to play the Gold market. If you had followed my recommendations for shorting GOLD on November 27 and then getting long GOLD on February 5, you would be up over 60% in 3 months. Although GOLD still looks like i may have some legs I am not willing to take he chance. We could see a pop in the dollar on Friday depending on the report and we will have to wait to get long GOLD if that is the case. I am NOT recommending shorting GOLD here but I think it is prudent to take your gains off the table.

I am still short term bearish on stocks and the stronger indicator's there lead me to believe the dollar may have a short term rally. I would not be surprised to see the DXY hit the 50 day MA(79.2) tomorrow and we should bounce off of that.

Thanks and Good Trading,

Tim Winters

Tuesday, March 2, 2010

Head and Shoulders in AAPL

Hi Folks,

Just a quick update. It looks like AAPL has formed a head and shoulers pattern. This is a bearish pattern. A move below $195 would confirm this. I would expect it to sell off pretty significantly possibly to the $140 range.

Thanks and Good Trading,

Tim Winters

Monday, March 1, 2010

Time to Short again

Hi Folks,

I want to be clear that most of my recommendations are short term. With that being said I shorted BAC today and will short more tomorrow I am also adding to my short in CREE. The VIX looks poised to bounce off of these lows.

I am still patiently waiting for the dollar to pullback resulting in more upside for GLD. I expect this to happen over the next 2 weeks. It will be intersting to see how the market reacts to a short term weaker dollar. The recent trend has been as the dollar slides the market goes higher. This is the first time in a while that I have been looking for a sell off in both the market and the dollar at the same time.

If you have any stocks, bonds, commodities or currencies you would like my opinion on, feel free to ask.

Thanks and Good Trading,

Tim Winters

Tuesday, February 23, 2010

2004 All Over Again

Hi Folks,

As I mentioned in an earlier post, 2010 is shaping up to look very much 2004 in the markets. A controlled downward slide. This should be an environment to draw some downward trend lines and Buy and Sell at the extremes. It looks like we are starting to head lower again. These directional shifts should be anywhere from a couple of weeks to 6 weeks.

I'm still long Gold here. It looks like the dollar should have a pullback here dispite what the "smart money' says about the dollar moving higher. I do belive that the dollar is going higher but where I differ is in the timing. I believe we will get a sharp, quick pullback pushing Gold higher over the next 2 weeks or so and then turning around to return to the dollar rallying and back to shorting Gold.

I recently shorted CREE. Although the fundamentals looks great, we have come to far too fast. The parabolic move is not sustainable. Parabolic moves can be dangerous so use tight stops if you decide to short.

Thanks and Good Trading,

Tim Winters

Friday, February 5, 2010

Long GOLD

Hi Folks,

I covered my short GLD today and actually got long Gold today. I think this is a good entry point. The dollar has gotten ahead of itself and I believe we wlll see a short term rally in GOLD over the next month or so.

I have not covered my short postions in Equities yet but I think within a month I will be getting long equities as well. Look to the financials for signs that we are heading higher. With the recent good fundamental earnings for the tech sector, I think that will be the place to be when we turn. For now we should we should see sideways to lower in equities.

THanks and Good Trading,

Tim Winters

Wednesday, January 20, 2010

What To Do Now?

Hey Folks,

This type of environment can be difficult to interpret. With that being said it is usually best to sit on the sidelines and wait for the opportunities to come to you. Most of the technicals say that the market should see a short term sell off. Contrarily the VIX is still showing the possibility of a greater upside move. That is why I am still recommending staying on the sidelines. It is best to wait than to guess.

I still see more weakness in GLD due to the rally in the dollar off of it's 50 day moving average. Hopefully you took my advice and took your profits off the table in USO and BAC and GS.

I am still long AAPL into earnings but very cautious. As for GOOG, I have no position in it but I think there is a chance we could see much lower prices before getting long. I am never excited around earnings. There is always the chance of the unexpected.

Thanks and Good Trading,

Tim Winters

Tuesday, January 5, 2010

Time To Sell Stocks

Hi Folks,

I belive you need to exit the equity markets over the next 3 days. The technical move that I saw in my charts is coming to an end. I thought we might carry through March intially but now it appears as though the ride is over.

I still believe there is more room to the downside in GLD. The dollar looks poised for a new breakout to the upside. It will be short lived(a couple of weeks) and then I would recommend exiting the short GLD position and taking a short term long position in GLD at that time.

I am also recommedning that you exit the long USO position in the next few days as well. Although it has risen in the face of a rising dollar, I am willing to take my profits here and reevaluate in the coming weeks.

For the record I am still long AAPL but more cautious due to the outlook on the rest of the market.

I will also be exiting my long positions in BAC and GS in the next few days. With a quick 10% gain, I can live with those profits.

I will keep you posted.

Thanks and Good Trading,

Tim Winters

Sunday, January 3, 2010

Time to Buy the Financials

Hi Folks,

The old saying "as the financials go, so does the market" should hold true. I know that there is a lot of concern about the financials in the coming year. I share some of the same concerns. With that being said, NOW is the time to buy the financials. Looking at the XLF, we are poised for a breakout. Same goes for many of the individual names. I like BAC and GS here.

I will keep you posted.

Thanks and Good Trading,

Tim Winters