Wednesday, December 30, 2009

Year End Update

Hey Folks,

I thought it was appropriate to give you an end of year update. I am still long stocks and short GLD. I also recently added a long position in USO. Oil looks poised to move considerably higher from here.

I am a bit concerned about the short term prospects of the US Equity markets. In short we are either going to move up around 10% or we may see a quick 5-6% selloff. If we get that at the beginning of the year, you need to buy. The longer term technical indicators still show more room to the upside. However after this upside move it will be time to sell and short stocks.

Update on AAPL. I recently ought calls in AAPL per my earlier call that it was going to $250. I still belive we are heading to the $250-$260 range. The technical pattern which caused me to buy calls is called a pennant. I Googled it and here is the first hit for those of you not familiar with the term. http://www.trending123.com/patterns/bullish_pennant.html.

I will keep you posted and try to update more frequently in 2010.

Thanks and Good Trading,

Tim Winters

Thursday, December 10, 2009

Rally in Stocks Sell Off in Gold

Dear Readers,

I think we will still see lower lows in GLD but I believe we are about to see a surprise outbreak to the upside in stocks. This would indicate a divergence from the recent norm. The dollar strengthening and the US Equity Markets also strengthening. Could it be that the world is realizing that a stronger dollar is actually better for the US economy than a weaker dollar. I hope so but I doubt it.

The dollar recently broke above the 50 day moving average. We are also approaching the 100 day moving of 76.5. A breakout above would mean more pain for the GLD. My technical analysis supports this idea. I remain short GLD and today bought stocks.

Gld is approaching and soon will break it's 50 day moving average. For traders, this is an ideal trading environment. I would continue to be short GLD until we break the 50 day Moving Average then look for a pop back to the 10 day moving average and then re short.

I will keep you posted.

Thanks and Good trading,

Tim Winters

Friday, November 27, 2009

Time to Bail Out on Gold

Dear Readers,

I am recommending to exit your long positions in Gold and the US Equity Markets. This is the beginning a short term pullback that I mentioned in my earlier posts. I believe it would be prudent to exit the longs and wait for the next opportunity to get back in. I still believe we may see new highs by March 2010 but for the time being it is best to be out or carry a small short position in Gold.

I will keep you posted.


Thanks and Good Trading

Tim Winters

Tuesday, November 17, 2009

Dow 11,000???

Dear Readers,

I am seeing more and more signs that the market is still heading higher. My contention is that the markets will head higher over the next couple of weeks, have a pullback, then soar to new 2009 highs. After the latter move that will be the beginning of a typical bear market pattern of lower highs and lower lows for possibly most of 2010. The good news is we likely will have a 10% upside move first.

The bear market will not look like 2008. I believe it will resemble 2004. The technical setup is very similar. However, I believe the potential for a bubble bursting in the future is very real. The eventual unwinding of the "carry trade" will be disastrous for all asset classes. The timing of this, for now, is uncertain, but be sure that I will be looking for the fundamental symptoms and the technical indications.

As a side note, GOOG is heading to $700 and AAPL to $250 by March 2010.

Thanks and Good Trading,

Tim Winters

Sunday, November 15, 2009

Gold Rush

Dear Readers,

I know there has been alot of conflicting opinions on where the gold market is heading. I am here to tell you that it is about to head even higher. I am a long time user of technical analysis and former professional options trader and my analysis tells me that GOLD IS GOING $1300. This is a shorter term view and I constantly update my views based on the dynamic market. We may see a short term pullback and this should be used as a buying opportunity.

This bullish outlook also applies to Us Equity markets as well. We are still in a bull market however it will not be as big of a move that is due in the gold market.

My views on the markets on relevant in the daily markets to about a 3 to 6 month period. I have and will change my opinions based on changes in the technical set ups of the coming markets.

Being new to blogging, I will expand my blogs to include some of the technical data that I use to interpret the market's direction.

Thanks and Good Trading,

Tim Winters