Thursday, March 1, 2012

3-5% Pullback

Hi Folks,

The market seems to be having trouble getting through this area. Again 137 level in terms of SPY. I still expect the market to pullback 3 - 5% here so my bias of selling the rallies remains. The area of caution is if we break the trend line that I posted a chart of the other day. One of the technical indicators that I look for in a pullback is when the stochastics make an "M" shape and the MACD is inverted. On the 4 hour chart and the daily chart we have this set up in both charts.

Thanks and Good Trading,

Tim

Wednesday, February 29, 2012

Mess With the Bull and You Get The Horns

Hi Folks,

Well it seems as though this market wants to keep grinding higher. Any selloff is met with immediate buying. Sunday night, most charts looked like the were ready to selloff and they all did Monday morning but then reversed within the first hour of trading. I am still in the sell the rallies mode here. We are in the 137 area in terms of SPY and I still feel that this is going to be a difficult area for the market to get through. Let me be clear I am not bearish. When I say sell the rallies it is mainly in terms of day trading. We could easily keep trending up to the 142 level in terms of SPY.

Thanks and Good Trading,

Tim

Sunday, February 26, 2012

Trading This Week

Hi Folks,

It's Sunday night and I'm doing my prep work for the week ahead. Looking at a lot of charts and most of them look like short setups or they are very near. I only found 1 potential long and that is FSLR but it is a short term trade and they have earnings soon so I won't touch it. The trend that has been in place since the October 4th low is still intact. The support for the trend is around 132 in terms of SPY. A break below this could set the stage for bigger concerns down the road.


If we break that trend line as we did in March 2011, it set up the selloff that we saw in July. Notice that even though we broke the trend in March 2011 the market did rally to a new high in May 2011. The trend line then acted as resistance.



Thanks and Good Trading,

Tim