Bonds due to get crushed: Look to TBT and TLT: Mortgage Rates Higher

Hi Folks,

It's been a long time since I blogged. I am going to start to actively blog more often now.

So now, I am looking for the bond market to get a bit of a butt kicking over the next several months. TLT is now rolling over. You can play this one of 2 ways. Either short TLT or get long TBT. If you are going to use options to trade this I would stick with TBT and at a minimum use March options are even June options. I see TBT getting to at least 25 and possibly 30 over the next few months.

This will also lead to higher mortgage rates for those of you looking to refi make sure you lock in your rates.

As I have mentioned before 90% of my analysis is technical analysis so I don't offer much color at this point to any reasons behind my oprinions other than technicals.

Please feel free to comment or ask about any particular stock, ETF or currency.

Have a great day!

Regards

Tim

Volume Tells The Story

Hi Folks,

This will be brief. I think volume tells the story here. The biggest volume day we have had in a while was Friday and it was a down day. Which confirms my thoughts that we are heading lower.

March 31st ends the era of the FED buying MBS's(mortgage backed securities). This is a significant event. It is also the end of quarter and I believe money managers will stop chasing the market and marking their positions. There will be a wait and see time to see if private money steps in to buy the MBS's. My contention is that they will not. With the carry trade still in place and the stigma that area of the credit market exudes, why would they step in?

Again as in my earlier posts, watch the financials for direction. I feel the VIX has temporarily bottomed and we will see the market pullback that is well deserved.

As for GOLD, I still believe we see minor strength before getting the opportunity for a solid short. I will keep you posted.

Thanks and Good Trading,

Tim Winters

Watch Gold

Hi Folks,

I am looking for GOLD to move higher here. That is why in my earlier post I said not to short GOLD but to exit your long. However I am not suggesting a new long position other than to day trade on the long side. We could see new short term highs(meaning above ($112) over the next 2 weeks. However, this should set up nicely for a short in GOLD after this move. I will post when I see this short GOLD set up. Again I do recommend using the double long or double short ETF's to maximize these moves.

Thanks and Good Trading,

Tim Winters

Being Early On A Call Is Another Way Of Saying I Was Wrong

Hi Folks,

I was early on my call about being short term bearish on the market. That is trader speak for admitting you were wrong. With that being said, I am still beaish on the market. This market is sliding upwards on low volume. A sign that it is mostly short covering and speculating. The big money isn't buying. I am beginning to average in over the next several days on the short side. I will buying short ETFs. I will probably find a stock or two to also short(none as of yet).

I got out of my short positions in BAC and CREE with small profits. Hopefully you listened to me and got out of your long GOLD positions. I am still watching to wait for direction in GOLD.

I am trying to commit o writing at least once a week going forward and gradually daily.

Thanks and Good Trading,

Tim Winters

Covering Your LONG Gold

Hi Folks,

I am recommending that you exit your long GOLD positions before Friday's jobs report. Although the dollar has not sold off yet as I think it will, GOLD has performed enough for my liking. I use DZZ(double short GOLD) and DGP(double long GOLD) to play the Gold market. If you had followed my recommendations for shorting GOLD on November 27 and then getting long GOLD on February 5, you would be up over 60% in 3 months. Although GOLD still looks like i may have some legs I am not willing to take he chance. We could see a pop in the dollar on Friday depending on the report and we will have to wait to get long GOLD if that is the case. I am NOT recommending shorting GOLD here but I think it is prudent to take your gains off the table.

I am still short term bearish on stocks and the stronger indicator's there lead me to believe the dollar may have a short term rally. I would not be surprised to see the DXY hit the 50 day MA(79.2) tomorrow and we should bounce off of that.

Thanks and Good Trading,

Tim Winters

Head and Shoulders in AAPL

Hi Folks,

Just a quick update. It looks like AAPL has formed a head and shoulers pattern. This is a bearish pattern. A move below $195 would confirm this. I would expect it to sell off pretty significantly possibly to the $140 range.

Thanks and Good Trading,

Tim Winters

Time to Short again

Hi Folks,

I want to be clear that most of my recommendations are short term. With that being said I shorted BAC today and will short more tomorrow I am also adding to my short in CREE. The VIX looks poised to bounce off of these lows.

I am still patiently waiting for the dollar to pullback resulting in more upside for GLD. I expect this to happen over the next 2 weeks. It will be intersting to see how the market reacts to a short term weaker dollar. The recent trend has been as the dollar slides the market goes higher. This is the first time in a while that I have been looking for a sell off in both the market and the dollar at the same time.

If you have any stocks, bonds, commodities or currencies you would like my opinion on, feel free to ask.

Thanks and Good Trading,

Tim Winters