Volume Tells The Story

Hi Folks,

This will be brief. I think volume tells the story here. The biggest volume day we have had in a while was Friday and it was a down day. Which confirms my thoughts that we are heading lower.

March 31st ends the era of the FED buying MBS's(mortgage backed securities). This is a significant event. It is also the end of quarter and I believe money managers will stop chasing the market and marking their positions. There will be a wait and see time to see if private money steps in to buy the MBS's. My contention is that they will not. With the carry trade still in place and the stigma that area of the credit market exudes, why would they step in?

Again as in my earlier posts, watch the financials for direction. I feel the VIX has temporarily bottomed and we will see the market pullback that is well deserved.

As for GOLD, I still believe we see minor strength before getting the opportunity for a solid short. I will keep you posted.

Thanks and Good Trading,

Tim Winters