So here we are again. This is the second chance I have been referring to in my prior posts. Please take the steps the protect your portfolio now. You will not get another chance. As I mentioned in my earlier posts, the market has rebounded back into the moving averages and now we beginning the longer term move down. I have received feedback that maybe I have not been clear about how this would unfold so I will attempt again.
The initial phase of a reversal is a big move down, roughly 5 - 40%, then a move back into the moving averages (2nd chance), then begins the series of lower lows and lower highs until the it eventually bottoms out. We started this reversal with a 14% move lower off of the highs. Right now we are in the 2nd chance stage. We have rebounded back into the moving averages, From this point I expect lower lows and lower highs.
At today's close SPY was at $204.84. My target over the next few years for the bottom is $88 in SPY. Keep in mind, I've used the same modeling to calculate the low is 2003, the high in 2007, the low in 2009, and the high in 2015. These numbers are almost exact in every case. In an earlier post I showed you the Fibonacci chart showing the high for 2015. Here are the charts for the 2015 top and the eventual bottom over the next few years,
Thanks and Good Trading,
Tim
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