Being Early On A Call Is Another Way Of Saying I Was Wrong

Hi Folks,

I was early on my call about being short term bearish on the market. That is trader speak for admitting you were wrong. With that being said, I am still beaish on the market. This market is sliding upwards on low volume. A sign that it is mostly short covering and speculating. The big money isn't buying. I am beginning to average in over the next several days on the short side. I will buying short ETFs. I will probably find a stock or two to also short(none as of yet).

I got out of my short positions in BAC and CREE with small profits. Hopefully you listened to me and got out of your long GOLD positions. I am still watching to wait for direction in GOLD.

I am trying to commit o writing at least once a week going forward and gradually daily.

Thanks and Good Trading,

Tim Winters

Covering Your LONG Gold

Hi Folks,

I am recommending that you exit your long GOLD positions before Friday's jobs report. Although the dollar has not sold off yet as I think it will, GOLD has performed enough for my liking. I use DZZ(double short GOLD) and DGP(double long GOLD) to play the Gold market. If you had followed my recommendations for shorting GOLD on November 27 and then getting long GOLD on February 5, you would be up over 60% in 3 months. Although GOLD still looks like i may have some legs I am not willing to take he chance. We could see a pop in the dollar on Friday depending on the report and we will have to wait to get long GOLD if that is the case. I am NOT recommending shorting GOLD here but I think it is prudent to take your gains off the table.

I am still short term bearish on stocks and the stronger indicator's there lead me to believe the dollar may have a short term rally. I would not be surprised to see the DXY hit the 50 day MA(79.2) tomorrow and we should bounce off of that.

Thanks and Good Trading,

Tim Winters

Head and Shoulders in AAPL

Hi Folks,

Just a quick update. It looks like AAPL has formed a head and shoulers pattern. This is a bearish pattern. A move below $195 would confirm this. I would expect it to sell off pretty significantly possibly to the $140 range.

Thanks and Good Trading,

Tim Winters

Time to Short again

Hi Folks,

I want to be clear that most of my recommendations are short term. With that being said I shorted BAC today and will short more tomorrow I am also adding to my short in CREE. The VIX looks poised to bounce off of these lows.

I am still patiently waiting for the dollar to pullback resulting in more upside for GLD. I expect this to happen over the next 2 weeks. It will be intersting to see how the market reacts to a short term weaker dollar. The recent trend has been as the dollar slides the market goes higher. This is the first time in a while that I have been looking for a sell off in both the market and the dollar at the same time.

If you have any stocks, bonds, commodities or currencies you would like my opinion on, feel free to ask.

Thanks and Good Trading,

Tim Winters

2004 All Over Again

Hi Folks,

As I mentioned in an earlier post, 2010 is shaping up to look very much 2004 in the markets. A controlled downward slide. This should be an environment to draw some downward trend lines and Buy and Sell at the extremes. It looks like we are starting to head lower again. These directional shifts should be anywhere from a couple of weeks to 6 weeks.

I'm still long Gold here. It looks like the dollar should have a pullback here dispite what the "smart money' says about the dollar moving higher. I do belive that the dollar is going higher but where I differ is in the timing. I believe we will get a sharp, quick pullback pushing Gold higher over the next 2 weeks or so and then turning around to return to the dollar rallying and back to shorting Gold.

I recently shorted CREE. Although the fundamentals looks great, we have come to far too fast. The parabolic move is not sustainable. Parabolic moves can be dangerous so use tight stops if you decide to short.

Thanks and Good Trading,

Tim Winters

Long GOLD

Hi Folks,

I covered my short GLD today and actually got long Gold today. I think this is a good entry point. The dollar has gotten ahead of itself and I believe we wlll see a short term rally in GOLD over the next month or so.

I have not covered my short postions in Equities yet but I think within a month I will be getting long equities as well. Look to the financials for signs that we are heading higher. With the recent good fundamental earnings for the tech sector, I think that will be the place to be when we turn. For now we should we should see sideways to lower in equities.

THanks and Good Trading,

Tim Winters

What To Do Now?

Hey Folks,

This type of environment can be difficult to interpret. With that being said it is usually best to sit on the sidelines and wait for the opportunities to come to you. Most of the technicals say that the market should see a short term sell off. Contrarily the VIX is still showing the possibility of a greater upside move. That is why I am still recommending staying on the sidelines. It is best to wait than to guess.

I still see more weakness in GLD due to the rally in the dollar off of it's 50 day moving average. Hopefully you took my advice and took your profits off the table in USO and BAC and GS.

I am still long AAPL into earnings but very cautious. As for GOOG, I have no position in it but I think there is a chance we could see much lower prices before getting long. I am never excited around earnings. There is always the chance of the unexpected.

Thanks and Good Trading,

Tim Winters