Long GOLD

Hi Folks,

I covered my short GLD today and actually got long Gold today. I think this is a good entry point. The dollar has gotten ahead of itself and I believe we wlll see a short term rally in GOLD over the next month or so.

I have not covered my short postions in Equities yet but I think within a month I will be getting long equities as well. Look to the financials for signs that we are heading higher. With the recent good fundamental earnings for the tech sector, I think that will be the place to be when we turn. For now we should we should see sideways to lower in equities.

THanks and Good Trading,

Tim Winters

What To Do Now?

Hey Folks,

This type of environment can be difficult to interpret. With that being said it is usually best to sit on the sidelines and wait for the opportunities to come to you. Most of the technicals say that the market should see a short term sell off. Contrarily the VIX is still showing the possibility of a greater upside move. That is why I am still recommending staying on the sidelines. It is best to wait than to guess.

I still see more weakness in GLD due to the rally in the dollar off of it's 50 day moving average. Hopefully you took my advice and took your profits off the table in USO and BAC and GS.

I am still long AAPL into earnings but very cautious. As for GOOG, I have no position in it but I think there is a chance we could see much lower prices before getting long. I am never excited around earnings. There is always the chance of the unexpected.

Thanks and Good Trading,

Tim Winters

Time To Sell Stocks

Hi Folks,

I belive you need to exit the equity markets over the next 3 days. The technical move that I saw in my charts is coming to an end. I thought we might carry through March intially but now it appears as though the ride is over.

I still believe there is more room to the downside in GLD. The dollar looks poised for a new breakout to the upside. It will be short lived(a couple of weeks) and then I would recommend exiting the short GLD position and taking a short term long position in GLD at that time.

I am also recommedning that you exit the long USO position in the next few days as well. Although it has risen in the face of a rising dollar, I am willing to take my profits here and reevaluate in the coming weeks.

For the record I am still long AAPL but more cautious due to the outlook on the rest of the market.

I will also be exiting my long positions in BAC and GS in the next few days. With a quick 10% gain, I can live with those profits.

I will keep you posted.

Thanks and Good Trading,

Tim Winters

Time to Buy the Financials

Hi Folks,

The old saying "as the financials go, so does the market" should hold true. I know that there is a lot of concern about the financials in the coming year. I share some of the same concerns. With that being said, NOW is the time to buy the financials. Looking at the XLF, we are poised for a breakout. Same goes for many of the individual names. I like BAC and GS here.

I will keep you posted.

Thanks and Good Trading,

Tim Winters

Year End Update

Hey Folks,

I thought it was appropriate to give you an end of year update. I am still long stocks and short GLD. I also recently added a long position in USO. Oil looks poised to move considerably higher from here.

I am a bit concerned about the short term prospects of the US Equity markets. In short we are either going to move up around 10% or we may see a quick 5-6% selloff. If we get that at the beginning of the year, you need to buy. The longer term technical indicators still show more room to the upside. However after this upside move it will be time to sell and short stocks.

Update on AAPL. I recently ought calls in AAPL per my earlier call that it was going to $250. I still belive we are heading to the $250-$260 range. The technical pattern which caused me to buy calls is called a pennant. I Googled it and here is the first hit for those of you not familiar with the term. http://www.trending123.com/patterns/bullish_pennant.html.

I will keep you posted and try to update more frequently in 2010.

Thanks and Good Trading,

Tim Winters

Rally in Stocks Sell Off in Gold

Dear Readers,

I think we will still see lower lows in GLD but I believe we are about to see a surprise outbreak to the upside in stocks. This would indicate a divergence from the recent norm. The dollar strengthening and the US Equity Markets also strengthening. Could it be that the world is realizing that a stronger dollar is actually better for the US economy than a weaker dollar. I hope so but I doubt it.

The dollar recently broke above the 50 day moving average. We are also approaching the 100 day moving of 76.5. A breakout above would mean more pain for the GLD. My technical analysis supports this idea. I remain short GLD and today bought stocks.

Gld is approaching and soon will break it's 50 day moving average. For traders, this is an ideal trading environment. I would continue to be short GLD until we break the 50 day Moving Average then look for a pop back to the 10 day moving average and then re short.

I will keep you posted.

Thanks and Good trading,

Tim Winters

Time to Bail Out on Gold

Dear Readers,

I am recommending to exit your long positions in Gold and the US Equity Markets. This is the beginning a short term pullback that I mentioned in my earlier posts. I believe it would be prudent to exit the longs and wait for the next opportunity to get back in. I still believe we may see new highs by March 2010 but for the time being it is best to be out or carry a small short position in Gold.

I will keep you posted.


Thanks and Good Trading

Tim Winters