TBT

Hi Folks,

I am getting long TBT right now through options. I am buying the March 21 Calls at .17. I'll keep you posted. I am looking to sell these before March expiration for $3. We will see and I will keep you posted.

Thanks and Good Trading,

Tim

MOVING AVERAGES

Hi Folks,

I figured I would explain what I mean about the moving averages flattening while waiting for a trade set up. I recommend using 2 moving averages on your chart. People choose many different periods. Through trial and error and eventually the advice of a friend I use the 34 and the 81 period for my charts. Many use the basic 50 and 200. I like to see the 34 MA start to roll over and flatten out before looking for a short in a general uptrend. The exception to this is when the stock is well above the 34 but still trending higher. I use these same MA's on all time frames.

On the 30 and 60 minute charts, the MA's are flattened out now but the longer term( the 2 hour and 4 hour) are not flattend out yet. This is the first touch of the uptrending 34 on the 4 hour so I expect a bounce off of it. However the setup for a short is getting closer.

Thanks and Good Trading,

Tim

CHANGING FORMAT

Hi Folks,

I have been asked to focus more on the short term trades. So I am going to be giving my opinions on individual stocks and ETFs on a short term basis for daytrading as well as my longer term views. So in order to follow these it is important that you type your email in the "Follow By Email" box above.

Thanks and Good Trading,

Tim

The Song Remains the Same

Hi Folks,I am still NOT bearish on the market. I am still in the camp that you buy dips here. We are well above the moving averages and eventually they have to pull back a bit but for now, the moving averages are still trnding higher. No flattening yet. As for GOLD, it has gotten ahead of itself here. I expect a consolidation here even a minor pullback. I expect the dollar to get below 79 before another push higher on the DXY.Thanks and good trading!Tim

Pullback

Hi Folks, More of the same today. Small pullback but not any major pullback yet. Overall I would be buying dips until I see the moving averages flatten out. I will begin to start giving individual picks shortly and giving intraday trades as well. Thanks and have a great day! Tim

Wait and See

Hi Folks, Ok so the markets are a little ahead of themselves here so a pullback is expected. However I don't see a setup for a major pullback yet. One major thing I look for is the Moving Averages to flatten out before I really get excited about a short. This type of setup usually has a decent pullback which causes the MA's to flatten. Then you get a rally back up into the flattening MA's and that is when you put the better short on. I will be watching for this. I use multiple time frames when looking at charts. So when I say I am waiting for the moving averages to flatten, I am usually referring to the 30 and 60 min charts at a minimum and possibly longer. I also like to see the MACD's become inverted at the same time. That is when the signal line crosses below the MACD in the longer time frames. Please email me if you have questions about this. Thanks and good trading, Tim

Bonds due to get crushed: Look to TBT and TLT: Mortgage Rates Higher

Hi Folks,

It's been a long time since I blogged. I am going to start to actively blog more often now.

So now, I am looking for the bond market to get a bit of a butt kicking over the next several months. TLT is now rolling over. You can play this one of 2 ways. Either short TLT or get long TBT. If you are going to use options to trade this I would stick with TBT and at a minimum use March options are even June options. I see TBT getting to at least 25 and possibly 30 over the next few months.

This will also lead to higher mortgage rates for those of you looking to refi make sure you lock in your rates.

As I have mentioned before 90% of my analysis is technical analysis so I don't offer much color at this point to any reasons behind my oprinions other than technicals.

Please feel free to comment or ask about any particular stock, ETF or currency.

Have a great day!

Regards

Tim